At a public talk a few years ago, a seasoned value investor began his speech with a statement that surprised the audience:
“Even Warren Buffett says most people should just index. And I agree with him.”
Then he paused, smiled, and added:
“But Warren Buffett doesn’t index. And neither do I.”
That simple contradiction opens the door to one of the most misunderstood debates in investing: indexing versus active investing—and why both can be right at the same time.
Why Indexing Is Great for Most People
Let’s start with the uncomfortable truth.
Most investors:
- Don’t know how to value a business
- React emotionally to market moves
- Buy after prices rise
- Sell after prices fall
For such investors, indexing is not a compromise—it is a solution.
When you buy an index fund, you:
- Avoid stock selection mistakes
- Eliminate timing decisions
- Reduce fees and taxes
- Remove emotional interference
That is why Warren Buffett has repeatedly advised ordinary investors to stick with low-cost index funds. It protects people from their own worst instincts.
Then Why Don’t the Best Investors Index?
Here’s the paradox.
If indexing is optimal, why don’t great investors index themselves?
Why don’t Buffett, Joel Greenblatt, or other elite stock pickers simply buy the S&P 500 and relax?
The answer is simple:
- Indexing avoids mistakes
- Active investing exploits mistakes
And markets still make plenty of them.
The Myth That Markets Are “Efficient”
Students often argue:
“There are more analysts, more data, more computers. Isn’t the party over for active investing?”
If markets were perfectly rational, they would be right.
But consider what actually happened in the most-followed market in the world—the U.S. stock market:
- 1997–2000: Market doubled
- 2000–2002: Market was cut in half
- 2002–2007: Market doubled again
- 2007–2009: Market halved again
- 2009 onward: Market more than tripled
This alone tells us something crucial:
People are still emotional. People are still extreme. People are still wrong.
And averages hide far more than they reveal.
Beneath the Index: Wild Dispersion
An index like the S&P 500 smooths reality.
Under the surface:
- Some stocks are wildly overpriced
- Some are deeply undervalued
- Leadership rotates constantly
- Winners and losers change places
If you believe, as Benjamin Graham taught, that stock prices fluctuate around intrinsic value like a wave around a horizontal line, then mispricing is not the exception—it is the rule.
Markets throw pitches all the time.
Why Most Active Managers Still Fail
Here’s the uncomfortable part.
Even though opportunities exist, most active managers still underperform.
Why?
1. Behavioral Errors
Managers panic, chase trends, and abandon discipline—just like individuals.
2. Agency Problems
Most professionals are judged on three-year benchmarks:
- Underperform for a few years → pressure builds
- Clients leave
- Careers suffer
Even if the strategy is correct long-term, few are allowed to stick with it.
A Shocking Truth About Top Managers
Studies show something deeply counterintuitive:
Among the best-performing managers over a 10-year period:
- Nearly half spent 3+ years in the bottom decile
- Almost all spent time in the bottom half
In other words:
To beat the market long term, you must be willing to look wrong—sometimes for years.
Most investors simply cannot tolerate this.
Even When the Manager Wins, Investors Lose
Consider one remarkable example.
A mutual fund:
- Delivered 18% annual returns for a decade
- Market was flat over the same period
Yet the average investor in that fund lost 11% per year.
How?
- They bought after good performance
- Sold after bad performance
They converted excellence into failure—through behavior alone.
Institutions fare no better.
The Inevitable Rise of Passive Investing
Given these realities:
- More investors are moving to passive funds
- Fees on active management are shrinking
- Many managers are exiting the business
This trend will continue—and probably should.
But here’s the irony.
Why This Is Great News for True Stock Pickers
The more people give up on valuing businesses, the more opportunities remain for those who still can.
As a stock picker:
- You don’t need everyone to be wrong
- You only need enough people to be emotional
Markets are still driven by fear, greed, impatience, and institutional pressure.
That hasn’t changed—and likely never will.
The Real “Big Secret” of Investing
Despite all the talk about formulas, ratios, and models, the real edge is shockingly simple.
Patience.
Not patience for days or weeks—but years.
You must:
- Stick with a sound strategy
- Tolerate underperformance
- Ignore noise
- Resist comparison
Very few people can do this.
Why Valuing Businesses Is Still Rare
Most investors:
- Follow trends
- Watch price charts
- React to headlines
Very few can answer:
- What is this business worth?
- What cash will it generate?
- How durable is its advantage?
If you cannot value a business, indexing is the correct choice.
If you can—and have the temperament—active investing remains alive and well.
Active vs Passive Is the Wrong Question
The real question is not:
“Which is better?”
The real question is:
“Which fits you?”
Indexing is superior for:
- Most individuals
- Most institutions
- Most temperaments
Active investing is viable only for those with:
- Skill
- Discipline
- Long horizons
- Emotional resilience
Why the Best Results Look Messy
Great investing never looks smooth.
Returns:
- Zig when the market zags
- Look wrong before they look right
- Test conviction constantly
If you require validation, applause, or short-term comfort, you will fail—no matter how smart you are.
The Final Paradox
Markets are harder than ever.
Yet opportunities remain.
Why?
Because human nature hasn’t changed.
Fear, greed, impatience, envy, and regret still dominate decision-making.
That is why:
- Indexing is wise for most
- Active investing still works for a few
Closing Thought
You don’t need to beat the market to succeed.
You need to avoid self-inflicted failure.
If you choose indexing, do it with confidence and consistency.
If you choose active investing, understand the cost:
- Discomfort
- Loneliness
- Periods of looking foolish
As Joel Greenblatt ultimately reminds us:
Beating the market requires both skill and discipline—but discipline is far rarer.
That—not information—is the real edge.
